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WHERE DOES ZENYATTA RANK?
With Zenyatta having now registered 15 victories from 15 career starts, I can’t help wondering where she fits among America’s all-time greats.
No, I’m not talking about Zenyatta’s proper place among fillies and mares. I’m talking about where she ranks among the greatest Thoroughbreds to have ever graced the American racing stage.
So far, Zenyatta has suited up 15 times and never been beaten. She has won whether she was going as short as 6 1/2 furlongs or as long as 1 1/4 miles. She has won whether she was running on a synthetic surface or dirt. She has won whether the pace was fast or slow. She has won whether she was running against females or males.
Unless Zenyatta ever gets beat, there remains the possibility that she would beat everybody she ever runs against. And by basically toying with her opponents in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, when the vanquished included no less than eight Grade I winners, Zenatta showed that she is quite capable of rising to the occasion to defeat a group of quality males.
I began the exercise of considering where Zenyatta ranks among the all-time greats by asking, “Does she belong in the Top 10?” At first, I thought she probably does. But, after careful consideration, I came to the conclusion that I don’t think so, at least not at this point. Not when you consider who would be on such a Top 10 list.
To determine if Zenyatta belongs on the Top 10 list, I had to come up with my own Top 10. I have always thought a solid Top 10 list was the one compiled in the The Blood-Horse’s book, “Thoroughbred Champions: Top 100 Racehorses of the 20th Century.” In that book, a distinguished panel of seven ranked the Top 100 American racehorses of the century.
The panelists were Howard Battle (racing official), Lenny Hale (racing official), Jay Hovdey (writer), William Nack (writer), Pete Pedersen (racing official), Jennie Rees (writer) and Tommy Trotter (racing official).
I thought the panelists did a good job handling such a difficult task, especially with their Top 10. That said, I have always thought that they did drop the ball by ranking Ruffian so low. They had her at No. 35. Even though Ruffian was ranked the highest among fillies and mares, I think she definitely should have been considerably higher than No. 35. I also thought they should have put Spectacular Bid higher than No. 10.
Here is the list of The Blood-Horse’s Top 10 racehorses of the 20th century:
1. Man o’ War
2. Secretariat
3. Citation
4. Kelso
5. Count Fleet
6. Dr. Fager
7. Native Dancer
8. Forego
9. Seattle Slew
10. Spectacular Bid
Personally, I think Zenyatta probably would be in big trouble if she were to run against one of The Big Three: Man o’ War, Secretariat or Citation. I have trouble picturing Zenyatta beating them.
But then, in Zenyatta’s defense, she has never been beaten, whereas Man o’ War lost once (when upset by Upset), Secretariat retired with five losses and Citation lost 13 times. Trainer Allen Jerkens even managed to beat Secretariat with two different horses, Onion and Prove Out. And I certainly think Zenyatta is better than Onion and Prove Out.
But if Zenyatta ran against one of The Big Three, my money would be on Man o’ War, Secretariat or Citation, not the mare. For Zenyatta to have any chance against them, I think she would need for them to have an off day or poor racing luck.
If Zenyatta ran against Spectacular Bid, who was No. 10 on The Blood-Horse list, again my money definitely would be on the Bid. Zenyatta’s best shot against Spectacular Bid, I believe, would be if Ron Franklin were riding him. Franklin vs. Mike Smith would be a big plus for the mare, in my opinion. That would not be the case if Bill Shoemaker rode Spectacular Bid.
These horses didn’t make The Blood-Horse’s Top 10, but were ranked above Ruffian:
11. Tom Fool
12. Affirmed
13. War Admiral
14. Buckpasser
15. Colin
16. Damascus
17. Round Table
18. Cigar
19. Bold Ruler
20. Swaps
21. Equipoise
22. Phar Lap
23. John Henry
24. Nashua
25. Seabiscuit
26. Whirlaway
27. Alydar
28. Gallant Fox
29. Exterminator
30. Sysonby
31. Sunday Silence
32. Skip Away
33. Assault
34. Easy Goer
My feeling is Zenyatta and Ruffian probably belong somewhere from No. 11 to No. 20. Exactly where is not easy to say. Maybe they belong right below the Top 10. Or maybe they belong right below the Top 15. Or maybe they belong right below the Top 20.
Some true greats didn’t even make The Blood-Horse’s Top 20. For instance, John Henry is No. 23. Seabiscuit is No. 25.
Considering all the options, my inclination is to go with this list for my Top 10 of all time, as of today:
1. Man o’ War
2. Secretariat
3. Citation
4. Kelso
5. Spectacular Bid
6. Dr. Fager
7. Native Dancer
8. Seattle Slew
9. Count Fleet
10. Forego
This would be my next 10:
11. Ruffian
12. Zenyatta
13. Tom Fool
14. Affirmed
15. War Admiral
16. Buckpasser
17. Colin
18. Damascus
19. Round Table
20. Swaps
The above all-time Top 20 list, of course, is only my opinion, nothing more, nothing less.
Because Zenyatta is still racing, her position among the all-time greats -- whatever it currently is -- remains in flux. If she continues to win, the case will become increasingly stronger for her to be included among America’s Top 10 racehorses of all time. But, if she does get beat somewhere along the way, her stature no doubt will be diminished to some extent and I then would feel compelled to move her down from No. 12.
LOOKIN AT THE REBEL
Zenyatta is still perfect, while Lookin At Lucky isn’t, though he is very close.
Lookin At Lucky now has won six of seven lifetime starts. In the Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park last Saturday, the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2009 made his first start since winning Hollywood Park’s CashCall Futurity last Dec. 19.
In the Rebel, Lookin At Lucky was not exactly lucky. Ridden by Garrett Gomez, the son of Smart Strike clipped heels and stumbled on the backstretch. But the Bob Baffert-trained colt recovered from that incident and rallied resolutely in the stretch to win by a head over Noble’s Promise, who also had finished second in the CashCall Futurity.
I was very interested to read what Gomez had to say regarding the Rebel at his ESPN.com blog. I consider these comments important because I’d say no one is in a better position to tell us what happened to Lookin At Lucky in the Rebel than Gomez since he was the one aboard the colt.
“If you saw the race, you probably thought we were finished at the quarter pole,” Gomez wrote. “After we got sawed off and blocked off and clipped heels with Dublin, I did too. I pretty much had a second where I was like, ‘Great, we’re going down!’ But I was able to pop up out of the saddle and get him steadied. And then, in the next few strides, I just waited on him and gave him a chance to get back on his feet. He recuperated really well and we were able to go on.”
Gomez also discussed Lookin At Lucky racing with blinkers for the first time in the Rebel.
“It wasn’t something we hadn’t thought of before,” Gomez wrote. “We really didn’t want to mess with him too much last year with the Breeders’ Cup coming up. But even after the Norfolk in October, I was thinking he needed to have something done. We wanted to test [blinkers] out, to make sure he didn’t get too rank with them and didn’t lose what he does well in races. So we waited until after the Breeders’ Cup and worked him a couple of times [with blinkers]. And I actually thought he worked a little better.
“This horse does everything so easily, there’s no way we’ve come near to the bottom of him yet. Part of the reason for that is because half his attention is in the grandstand. In the Norfolk, I told Bob I thought I might end up in the infield. He threw the brakes on that much in the stretch, which you can see in the replay. He made the lead and then his ears went straight forward. I asked him to stay focused, but he wouldn’t. I tapped him with the stick a couple times, I threw a cross on him, I hollered at him, all to no effect. Then all of a sudden Pulsion started to come back on the inside, and it was like [Lookin At Lucky] thought, ‘Oh, there’s another horse. Let me pick up the bit!’ It was good and bad at the same time because he’d never been two turns and he finished with no effort whatsoever. But at the same time I had been riding pretty hard and he really wasn’t paying attention to me.
“If you watch his race in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, somewhat of the same thing happened. I had a wide trip. At the three-eighths pole, I was trying to make a run. But I couldn’t make up ground. I was starting to ride a bit and he really wasn’t interested. I’m making a little run to the quarter pole, and then we hit the stretch, and it looked like I might run fourth or fifth. I’m riding and riding and he’s just kind of lackadaisical out there. But when Vale of York swung out and ran up next to him, all of a sudden it’s like a different horse jumped on the bride, and he just took off. Too bad we missed by a little more than a nose.
“If you look at his past performances, he’s never won by more than a length and three-quarters. And the only reason he won by that much is because the other ones had gotten tired behind him. He’s never run away from any of his competition. Even in his maiden race, I thought I would win by five for fun, but he made the lead and just idled. I told Bob I feel like a sitting duck on him sometimes because once I get put in front, his focus level pretty much isn’t there.
“Now I know the talent level is there, and I’ve always been really high on him. He’s won six of seven races and the one he lost was by a head. So the biggest task is trying to keep him focused and I think the blinkers helped with that [in the Rebel]. Before the race, I thought we were throwing a lot at him with his first time on dirt and the addition of the new equipment (little did I know he’d have to handle that rough of a trip), and he aced the test.”
At his blog, Gomez also wrote about Lookin At Lucky’s condition immediately after the Rebel.
“When we got back to the winner’s circle, he had one nick right below his left hind ankle,” Gomez noted. “But it was like a little scratch, the kind that horses will accidentally get when they’re running and hit themselves sometimes from the shoes. So it didn’t look like anything really happened to him as a result of clipping heels. He felt good coming back. He was a little tired, but think about if you’d run a long distance and stumbled and then had to get up and keep going strong. All in all, I was very impressed with his whole race. He handled the dirt well and felt very good on it.”
Following his win in the Rebel, Lookin At Lucky maintains the top spot on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 list. Here is this week’s list:
1. Lookin At Lucky
2. Eskendereya
3. Noble’s Promise
4. Conveyance
5. Sidney’s Candy
6. Awesome Act
7. Rule
8. Interactif
9. Caracortado
10. Dublin
Lookin At Lucky was assigned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure for his Rebel triumph. Prior to this, while running on synthetic tracks, his top Beyer had been his 91 when second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The colt’s 97 Beyer for the Rebel is in the ballpark with Curlin’s 99 when he won the same race in 2007.
Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for the Rebel since the Daily Racing Form began publishing them:
2010 Lookin At Lucky (97)
2009 Win Willy (102)
2008 Sierra Sunset (99)
2007 Curlin (99)
2006 Lawyer Ron (94)
2005 Greater Good (95)
2004 Smarty Jones (112)
2003 Crowned King (90)
2002 Windward Passage (94)
2001 Crafty Shaw (102)
2000 Snuck In (101)
1999 Etbauer (102)
1998 Victory Gallop (105)
1997 Phantom On Tour (102)
1996 Ide (93)
1995 Mystery Storm (92)
1994 Judge T C (95)
1993 Dalhart (105)
1992 Pine Bluff (106)
1991 Quintana (no Beyer listed)
1990 Nuits St. Georges (82)
Baffert expressed how pleased he was with Lookin At Lucky’s Rebel performance considering the circumstances in a story by Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman.
“He passed all the tests,” Baffert said of the colt. “I trained him really light for this. I didn’t train him very hard for it. I didn’t want to do a lot with him. I didn’t want him to run off the screen today. That was perfect.”
According to Baffert, three races are under consideration for Lookin At Lucky’s next start: the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3, the Santa Anita Derby that same day or the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on April 10.
Noble’s Promise will run back in the Arkansas Derby, according to trainer Ken McPeek, who said he thought that colt “ran the best of his life” in the Rebel, only to still lose again to Lookin At Lucky.
Dublin, who finished third in the Rebel for trainer D. Wayne Lukas, also is scheduled to return in the Arkansas Derby.
While the Wood Memorial is under consideration for Lookin At Lucky, owner Ahmed Zayat announced that Eskendereya, who registered an 8 1/2-length victory in Gulfstream Park’s Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes on Feb. 20, will make his next start in the Wood rather than in this Saturday’s Grade I Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.
Eskendereya finished behind Lookin At Lucky in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Eskendereya, trained by Todd Pletcher, wound up ninth in the Juvenile after being impeded early in the race. The Giant’s Causeway colt is three for three on dirt.
With Eskendereya’s defection from the Florida Derby, Rule, also conditioned by Pletcher, becomes the probable favorite. The Roman Ruler colt has won four in a row. Rule has two graded stakes victories to his credit. He took the Grade III Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs last Dec. 4 and the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 13.
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